Peterborough 0-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 39%, yet in-form Portsmouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Peterborough vs Portsmouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Portsmouth travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough in League One (matchday 39). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Peterborough at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Portsmouth — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portsmouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Portsmouth's 2.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Peterborough's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Peterborough, 2 for Portsmouth and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Peterborough 1–3 Portsmouth — a Portsmouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 51% versus Portsmouth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 63% | Portsmouth 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.26 xG and Portsmouth 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.514 / defence 1.041 | Portsmouth attack 0.899 / defence 0.622. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.226. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.514 — their 1.26 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Portsmouth bring a tight defence (rating 0.622, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Peterborough's projected output down. Data: built from Peterborough's last 83 games and Portsmouth's last 84.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 39% | Draw 28% | Portsmouth 33%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.58 | Draw 3.59 | Portsmouth 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Portsmouth (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Peterborough 80% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, matchday 39 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 39% | Draw 28% | Portsmouth 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Peterborough 1.26 / Portsmouth 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.514 / def 1.041 | Portsmouth attack 0.899 / def 0.622 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Portsmouth xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Portsmouth kick off?
Peterborough vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Peterborough 0 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is Peterborough vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Portsmouth part of?
Peterborough vs Portsmouth is a League One fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 39% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Peterborough and Portsmouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Peterborough vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.51x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.62x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 83 games and Portsmouth's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.59
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.40
1.15
Portsmouth xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.15 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Peterborough's recent record stands at 45W 13D 26L from 84 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Portsmouth, meanwhile, have gone 40W 30D 14L across 84 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.76 PPG, Portsmouth on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 25W 8D 9L from their last 42 home games — 1.98 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portsmouth's away record stands at 18W 15D 9L across their last 42 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.46 scored and 0.98 conceded. Peterborough's scoring rate against Portsmouth's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 45W 13D 26L in their last 84 games (1.76 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 40W 30D 14L in their last 84 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Portsmouth away?
Peterborough's home record (1.98 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.98 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portsmouth have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Peterborough's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Peterborough
0
Draws
3
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Portsmouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 1, Portsmouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Peterborough 0-1 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 45%, Portsmouth 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Peterborough) and 40% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Portsmouth in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Portsmouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Peterborough's recent matches and 43% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Peterborough's recent games and 40% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Peterborough's recent matches and 64% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Portsmouth defy the odds to beat Peterborough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.26 xG and Portsmouth 1.15 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.51 / defence 1.04 against Portsmouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.62, drawn from 83/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 39% | Draw 28% | Portsmouth 33%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Portsmouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 63%, Portsmouth 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Portsmouth's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.76 PPG, Portsmouth 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Portsmouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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