Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Portsmouth (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Portsmouth face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portsmouth host Burton Albion at Fratton Park in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Portsmouth — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Portsmouth at Fratton Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Portsmouth have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Portsmouth hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Burton Albion, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Portsmouth winning.
The historical record gives Portsmouth a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 50% versus Burton Albion 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 45% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.68 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.293 / defence 1.001 | Burton Albion attack 0.749 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.242. Portsmouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 83 Portsmouth games / 82 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 55% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 21%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Burton Albion 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Portsmouth are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 70% | Burton Albion 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 55% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Portsmouth 1.68 / Burton Albion 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.293 / def 1.001 | Burton Albion attack 0.749 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Burton Albion xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Burton Albion kick off?
Portsmouth vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Burton Albion?
Portsmouth 2 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Portsmouth vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Burton Albion part of?
Portsmouth vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 55% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Portsmouth and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Burton Albion?
Record (5 meetings): Portsmouth 4W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Portsmouth and Burton Albion in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.29) and Burton Albion's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 83/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.13
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.61
0.93
Burton Albion xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
4%
25.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.93 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Portsmouth come into this having played 82 games, going 39W 29D 14L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.16 PPG from 82 outings (25W 20D 37L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Portsmouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Portsmouth's home form reads 21W 15D 5L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.95 points per game from 41 outings (10W 9D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.06 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 39W 29D 14L in their last 82 games (1.78 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 25W 20D 37L in their last 82 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Burton Albion away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.90 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and Burton Albion runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portsmouth go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Portsmouth
0
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 5, Burton Albion have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2024, when Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Burton Albion?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 58%, Burton Albion 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Portsmouth) and 54% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Burton Albion in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 49% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Portsmouth's recent games and 54% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out Burton Albion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.68 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.29 / defence 1.00 against Burton Albion attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 83/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 55% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 21%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 45%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.