Derby 1-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 39 as Derby welcome Bolton to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bolton away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Derby carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bolton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Derby, 1 for Bolton and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Bolton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (84 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play and half-time data (84 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Bolton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 51% | Bolton 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.68 xG and Bolton 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.211 / defence 0.905 | Bolton attack 1.105 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.226. Data: 84 Derby games / 84 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 24% | Bolton 28%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Bolton 3.57. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 80% | Bolton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 24% | Bolton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Derby 1.68 / Bolton 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.211 / def 0.905 | Bolton attack 1.105 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bolton xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Bolton kick off?
Derby vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Bolton?
Derby 1 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Derby vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Bolton part of?
Derby vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 48% chance of winning, Bolton a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derby and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
Record (3 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 1 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Derby and Bolton in?
Derby (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Bolton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Bolton's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.12
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Derby xG
Total xG
2.90
1.23
Bolton xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Derby and 1.23 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 84 outings, Derby have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 44W 19D 21L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Bolton's form line: 44W 20D 20L from 84 games, 1.81 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.80 PPG, Bolton on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.95 PPG from 42 outings (24W 10D 8L).
On the road, Bolton have gone 18W 11D 13L from 42 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.55 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bolton in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 84 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Bolton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 44W 19D 21L in their last 84 games (1.80 PPG), while Bolton have gone 44W 20D 20L in their last 84 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Bolton away?
Derby's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.95 PPG; Bolton away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Derby or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bolton in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
1
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Bolton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Derby 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Bolton?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 55%, Bolton 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Derby) and 40% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bolton in 36%; Bolton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Derby's recent matches and 45% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Derby's recent games and 40% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Bolton tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bolton in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Bolton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Bolton 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.68 xG and Bolton 1.23 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Bolton attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 48% | Draw 24% | Bolton 28%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 51%, Bolton 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.80 PPG, Bolton 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.