Shrewsbury 1-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Carlisle at 37%, yet in-form Shrewsbury provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shrewsbury vs Carlisle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 39 as Shrewsbury welcome Carlisle to The Croud Meadow. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shrewsbury stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Carlisle have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Carlisle's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shrewsbury carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shrewsbury, 1 for Carlisle and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Carlisle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Carlisle trading profile (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 39% versus Carlisle 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 45% | Carlisle 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.23 xG and Carlisle 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.654 / defence 1.220 | Carlisle attack 0.835 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.226. Shrewsbury's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 84 Shrewsbury games / 37 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 37%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Carlisle 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carlisle as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shrewsbury (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 50% | Carlisle 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Carlisle | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Shrewsbury 1.23 / Carlisle 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.654 / def 1.220 | Carlisle attack 0.835 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Carlisle xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Carlisle kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Carlisle?
Shrewsbury 1 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Carlisle part of?
Shrewsbury vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 36% chance of winning, Carlisle a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shrewsbury and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Carlisle?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Carlisle in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Carlisle (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.65x the league average against Carlisle's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.65
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.48
1.25
Carlisle xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.25 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 84 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 29W 13D 42L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Carlisle's form line: 25W 24D 35L from 84 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.19 PPG, Carlisle on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.44 PPG from 41 outings (18W 5D 18L).
On the road, Carlisle have gone 11W 10D 20L from 41 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 84 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 29W 13D 42L in their last 84 games (1.19 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 25W 24D 35L in their last 84 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Carlisle away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.44 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Carlisle?
From 2 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Carlisle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Shrewsbury 1-0 Carlisle.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 46%, Carlisle 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shrewsbury) and 46% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 42% of games; Carlisle in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 51% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 46% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Carlisle tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Carlisle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Carlisle 1-0 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.23 xG and Carlisle 1.25 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carlisle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.65 / defence 1.22 against Carlisle attack 0.83 / defence 1.41, drawn from 84/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 36% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 37%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shrewsbury win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 45%, Carlisle 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Carlisle's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.19 PPG, Carlisle 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.