Stevenage 0-1 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leyton Orient at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Leyton Orient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 39 as Stevenage welcome Leyton Orient to The Lamex Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stevenage's home record at The Lamex Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Leyton Orient have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Leyton Orient's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stevenage at 1.20 PPG versus Leyton Orient's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Stevenage have won 2, Leyton Orient 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Leyton Orient in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Leyton Orient 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 42% | Leyton Orient 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.88 xG and Leyton Orient 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.775 / defence 0.798 | Leyton Orient attack 0.934 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.226. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Stevenage games / 38 Leyton Orient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 33% | Leyton Orient 34%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Leyton Orient 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.88 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leyton Orient are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Leyton Orient 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 33% | Leyton Orient 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Stevenage 0.88 / Leyton Orient 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.775 / def 0.798 | Leyton Orient attack 0.934 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Leyton Orient xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Stevenage vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Leyton Orient.
Where is Stevenage vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Leyton Orient part of?
Stevenage vs Leyton Orient is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 32% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Stevenage and Leyton Orient will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Leyton Orient?
Record (5 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 3 | Leyton Orient 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Leyton Orient in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Leyton Orient (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Leyton Orient's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Leyton Orient's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
32%
3.09
33%
3.01
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.79
0.91
Leyton Orient xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.2 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.91 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 41W 23D 19L from 83 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Leyton Orient, meanwhile, have gone 40W 23D 20L across 83 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.76 PPG, Leyton Orient on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 25W 9D 7L from 41 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leyton Orient's away record stands at 17W 13D 11L across 41 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.23 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Leyton Orient in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 41W 23D 19L in their last 83 games (1.76 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 40W 23D 20L in their last 83 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Leyton Orient away?
Stevenage's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.05 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Leyton Orient runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2023, when Stevenage won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Leyton Orient specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stevenage
4
Draws
3
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Leyton Orient?
From 10 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Leyton Orient have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Leyton Orient last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Stevenage 1-2 Leyton Orient.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Leyton Orient 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 34% (Leyton Orient).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Leyton Orient in 32%; Leyton Orient in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Leyton Orient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 49% of Leyton Orient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Leyton Orient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 34% of Leyton Orient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Leyton Orient tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Leyton Orient in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leyton Orient edge out Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Stevenage 0-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.88 xG and Leyton Orient 0.91 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.80 against Leyton Orient attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 32% | Draw 33% | Leyton Orient 34%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Leyton Orient 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.76 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.98 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.