Northampton 0-2 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Northampton welcome Shrewsbury to Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Northampton have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Northampton's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shrewsbury — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shrewsbury's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Northampton are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Northampton have won 0, Shrewsbury 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Northampton 0–1 Shrewsbury — a Shrewsbury win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Shrewsbury 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Shrewsbury 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.53 xG and Shrewsbury 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.006 / defence 1.013 | Shrewsbury attack 0.584 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.123. Shrewsbury's attack rating of 0.584 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Data: built from Northampton's last 27 games and Shrewsbury's last 74.
Result probabilities: Northampton 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.72 | Draw 3.89 | Shrewsbury 6.21. The model has a clear lean to Northampton (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Northampton 60% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, matchday 30 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Northampton 1.53 / Shrewsbury 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.006 / def 1.013 | Shrewsbury attack 0.584 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Northampton (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Shrewsbury xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Northampton vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Northampton 0 - 2 Shrewsbury.
Where is Northampton vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Shrewsbury part of?
Northampton vs Shrewsbury is a League One fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 58% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Northampton and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Northampton vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Northampton's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Shrewsbury's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 27 games and Shrewsbury's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.89
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.19
0.66
Shrewsbury xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
3%
28.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Northampton and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Northampton and 0.66 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 73 games, going 35W 18D 20L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 1.21 PPG from 73 outings (26W 10D 37L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 18W 9D 9L across their last 36 home games, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 36 away games (8W 6D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.96 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Northampton (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Blended
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Northampton vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 35W 18D 20L in their last 73 games (1.68 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 26W 10D 37L in their last 73 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Shrewsbury away?
Northampton's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.75 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Northampton or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Apr 2025, when Northampton won Northampton 4-1 Shrewsbury.
Northampton's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Northampton
1
Draws
3
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Shrewsbury?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 1, Shrewsbury have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Northampton and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Shrewsbury 2-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Shrewsbury?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 53%, Shrewsbury 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Northampton) and 36% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Northampton's recent matches and 31% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Northampton's recent games and 36% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Northampton's recent matches and 67% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Northampton 0-2 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.53 xG and Shrewsbury 0.66 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Shrewsbury outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Shrewsbury attack 0.58 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Shrewsbury win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Shrewsbury 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Shrewsbury winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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