Charlton 2-3 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 52%, yet in-form Northampton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charlton and Northampton meet at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 3D 3L at The Valley — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Northampton have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Northampton are 1.30 PPG clear of Charlton in recent League One fixtures (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Northampton half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 65% versus Northampton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 54% | Northampton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.89 xG and Northampton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.129 / defence 1.229 | Northampton attack 0.909 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.135. Northampton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Charlton games / 26 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 52% | Draw 23% | Northampton 25%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Northampton 4.00. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Northampton (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 80% | Northampton 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 52% | Draw 23% | Northampton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Charlton 1.89 / Northampton 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.129 / def 1.229 | Northampton attack 0.909 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Charlton (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Northampton xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Northampton kick off?
Charlton vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Northampton?
Charlton 2 - 3 Northampton.
Where is Charlton vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Northampton part of?
Charlton vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 52% chance of winning, Northampton a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Charlton and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Northampton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Northampton in?
Charlton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Northampton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.13x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Northampton's attack (0.91x) against Charlton's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 73/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.29
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.16
1.27
Northampton xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
4%
26.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Charlton and 1.27 for Northampton, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton come into this having played 72 games, going 23W 22D 27L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Northampton sit at 1.67 PPG from 72 outings (34W 18D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Charlton's home form reads 13W 10D 12L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Northampton have taken 1.54 points per game from 35 outings (15W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.31 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Northampton in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 22D 27L in their last 72 games (1.26 PPG), while Northampton have gone 34W 18D 20L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Northampton away?
Northampton's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.40 PPG; Northampton away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Charlton or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Northampton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 0-5 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Northampton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Northampton?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Northampton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Charlton 2-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Northampton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 74%, Northampton 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Charlton) and 46% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Northampton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Northampton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Charlton's games and 51% of Northampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Charlton's recent games and 46% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Northampton tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Northampton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Northampton defy the odds to beat Charlton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Charlton 2-3 at The Valley, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.89 xG and Northampton 1.27 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Northampton outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.13 / defence 1.23 against Northampton attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 73/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 52% | Draw 23% | Northampton 25%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Northampton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 54%, Northampton 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Northampton's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.