Lincoln 0-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Peterborough (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lincoln face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Peterborough travel to LNER Stadium to take on Lincoln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lincoln stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at LNER Stadium, Lincoln have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Peterborough are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Peterborough have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Lincoln's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Peterborough winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Peterborough have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 43% versus Peterborough 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 31% | Peterborough 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.01 xG and Peterborough 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.819 / defence 0.927 | Peterborough attack 1.289 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.123. Peterborough have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 Lincoln games / 73 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 28% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 44%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Peterborough 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lincoln 50% | Peterborough 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 28% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Lincoln 1.01 / Peterborough 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.819 / def 0.927 | Peterborough attack 1.289 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Peterborough xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Peterborough kick off?
Lincoln vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Lincoln vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Peterborough part of?
Lincoln vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 28% chance of winning, Peterborough a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lincoln and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Peterborough?
Record (3 meetings): Lincoln 0W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 3W.
What form are Lincoln and Peterborough in?
Lincoln (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Peterborough (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.82) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
28%
3.56
28%
3.63
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.35
1.34
Peterborough xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.34 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lincoln's recent record stands at 22W 30D 22L from 74 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 40W 12D 22L across 74 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Peterborough by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lincoln heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 11W 19D 6L from 36 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 18W 4D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.77 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Peterborough in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 22W 30D 22L in their last 74 games (1.30 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 40W 12D 22L in their last 74 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Peterborough away?
Peterborough's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.44 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Peterborough in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lincoln have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Peterborough won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lincoln
2
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Peterborough?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 3, Peterborough have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Lincoln 5-2 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 47%, Peterborough 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Lincoln) and 58% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lincoln's recent matches and 58% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Lincoln's recent games and 58% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Peterborough tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Lincoln and Peterborough drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.01 xG and Peterborough 1.34 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Peterborough landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.82 / defence 0.93 against Peterborough attack 1.29 / defence 0.92, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 28% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 44%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 31%, Peterborough 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Peterborough's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.