Cambridge United 0-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambridge United vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to Cledara Abbey Stadium to face Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambridge United's overall League One record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United at Cledara Abbey Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Burton Albion (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cambridge United, 2 for Burton Albion and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 43% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 43% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.30 xG and Burton Albion 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.835 / defence 1.045 | Burton Albion attack 0.747 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.123. Data: 72 Cambridge United games / 74 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 46% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 25%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Burton Albion 4.00. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 40% | Burton Albion 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 46% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Cambridge United 1.30 / Burton Albion 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.835 / def 1.045 | Burton Albion attack 0.747 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Burton Albion xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Burton Albion kick off?
Cambridge United vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Cambridge United 0 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion part of?
Cambridge United vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 46% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cambridge United and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Burton Albion?
Record (5 meetings): Cambridge United 2W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 2W.
What form are Cambridge United and Burton Albion in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (0.83) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.75x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 72/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.52
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.18
0.88
Burton Albion xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Cambridge United and 0.88 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Cambridge United have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 21W 14D 37L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 23W 18D 31L from 72 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Cambridge United against 1.21 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cambridge United have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (15W 7D 14L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 8W 7D 21L from 36 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambridge United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambridge United are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.14 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 21W 14D 37L in their last 72 games (1.07 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 23W 18D 31L in their last 72 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Burton Albion away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.44 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cambridge United
2
Draws
3
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 3, Burton Albion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Burton Albion 2-1 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 42%, Burton Albion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cambridge United) and 53% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 33% of games; Burton Albion in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 50% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cambridge United's recent games and 53% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cambridge United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Cambridge United and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.30 xG and Burton Albion 0.88 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cambridge United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Burton Albion attack 0.75 / defence 1.17, drawn from 72/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 46% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 25%, with Cambridge United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 43%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.07 PPG, Burton Albion 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.