Derby 2-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Derby at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Cheltenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cheltenham travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby in League One (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Cheltenham have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cheltenham's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Derby are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Derby have won 2, Cheltenham 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Derby 1–1 Cheltenham — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cheltenham trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 51% versus Cheltenham 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 50% | Cheltenham 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.64 xG and Cheltenham 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.320 / defence 1.030 | Cheltenham attack 0.711 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.123. Derby carry an above-average attack rating of 1.320 — their 1.64 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cheltenham's attack rating of 0.711 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Derby's last 74 games and Cheltenham's last 72.
Result probabilities: Derby 57% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 19%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.76 | Draw 4.08 | Cheltenham 5.36. The model has a clear lean to Derby (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Derby 60% (last 10 home games) | Cheltenham 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, matchday 30 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 57% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Derby 1.64 / Cheltenham 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.320 / def 1.030 | Cheltenham attack 0.711 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Derby (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cheltenham xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Cheltenham FAQs
What time does Derby vs Cheltenham kick off?
Derby vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Cheltenham?
Derby 2 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Derby vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Cheltenham part of?
Derby vs Cheltenham is a League One fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 57% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derby and Cheltenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Derby vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.32x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 74 games and Cheltenham's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.08
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Derby xG
Total xG
2.47
0.82
Cheltenham xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
4%
27.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Cheltenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Derby and 0.82 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Cheltenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Derby have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 36W 18D 18L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Cheltenham's form line: 20W 17D 35L from 72 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 35 home games (19W 9D 7L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 8W 6D 21L from their last 35 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Cheltenham
Blended
Derby (Home) vs Cheltenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Derby vs Cheltenham Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 36W 18D 18L in their last 72 games (1.75 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 20W 17D 35L in their last 72 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Cheltenham away?
Derby's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.89 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Derby or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Cheltenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cheltenham?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 3, Cheltenham have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Cheltenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Derby 2-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Cheltenham?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Cheltenham 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Derby) and 43% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cheltenham in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Cheltenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Cheltenham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 31% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Cheltenham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Derby's recent games and 43% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Cheltenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Derby's recent matches and 66% of Cheltenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Cheltenham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Cheltenham 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.64 xG and Cheltenham 0.82 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.32 / defence 1.03 against Cheltenham attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 57% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 19%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 50%, Cheltenham 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Cheltenham's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 30
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →