Derby 2-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derby (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derby face Cheltenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Cheltenham travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Cheltenham have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Derby are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Derby, 0 for Cheltenham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cheltenham trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 51% versus Cheltenham 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 50% | Cheltenham 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.64 xG and Cheltenham 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.320 / defence 1.030 | Cheltenham attack 0.711 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.123. Derby carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 74 Derby games / 72 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 57% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 19%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Cheltenham 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Derby (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 60% | Cheltenham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 57% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Derby 1.64 / Cheltenham 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.320 / def 1.030 | Cheltenham attack 0.711 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Derby (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Cheltenham xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Cheltenham kick off?
Derby vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Cheltenham?
Derby 2 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Derby vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Cheltenham part of?
Derby vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 57% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derby and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cheltenham?
Record (3 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 1 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Derby and Cheltenham in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.32x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.08
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Derby xG
Total xG
2.47
0.82
Cheltenham xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
4%
27.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Derby and 0.82 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Cheltenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Derby have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 36W 18D 18L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Cheltenham's form line: 20W 17D 35L from 72 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (19W 9D 7L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 8W 6D 21L from 35 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 36W 18D 18L in their last 72 games (1.75 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 20W 17D 35L in their last 72 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Cheltenham away?
Derby's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.89 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Derby or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Cheltenham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Derby 2-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Cheltenham?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Cheltenham 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Derby) and 43% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cheltenham in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 31% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Derby's recent games and 43% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Cheltenham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Cheltenham 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.64 xG and Cheltenham 0.82 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.32 / defence 1.03 against Cheltenham attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 57% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 19%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 50%, Cheltenham 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Cheltenham's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.