Mansfield Town 0-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mansfield Town face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to One Call Stadium to face Mansfield Town in League One (matchday 42). The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Mansfield Town (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Mansfield Town have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Burton Albion have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Burton Albion edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Mansfield Town 1–2 Burton Albion — a Burton Albion win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 58% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 55% | Burton Albion 52%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Mansfield Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.48 xG and Burton Albion 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.007 / defence 1.021 | Burton Albion attack 0.876 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.098. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 84 games and Burton Albion's last 87.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 49% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 25%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.05 | Draw 3.82 | Burton Albion 4.00. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 42 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 49% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Mansfield Town 1.48 / Burton Albion 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.007 / def 1.021 | Burton Albion attack 0.876 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Burton Albion xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Mansfield Town 0 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion part of?
Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 49% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mansfield Town and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mansfield Town's attack at 1.01x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.88x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Mansfield Town's last 84 games and Burton Albion's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.82
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.46
0.98
Burton Albion xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
6%
17.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.98 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 84 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 28W 22D 34L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Burton Albion's form line: 23W 23D 38L from 84 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.10 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 1.36 PPG from their last 42 home games (16W 9D 17L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 9W 14D 19L from their last 42 away games — 0.98 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.06 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
Mansfield Town (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 28W 22D 34L in their last 84 games (1.26 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 23W 23D 38L in their last 84 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Burton Albion away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.36 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.98 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Mansfield Town have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Burton Albion 2-2 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 57%, Burton Albion 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Mansfield Town) and 45% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mansfield Town and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 48% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mansfield Town and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 45% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 60% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mansfield Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 42, as Mansfield Town and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.48 xG and Burton Albion 0.98 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mansfield Town fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Burton Albion attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 84/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 49% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 25%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 55%, Burton Albion 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.26 PPG, Burton Albion 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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