Peterborough 2-3 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Peterborough welcome Wigan to Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Peterborough have gone 6W 4D 0L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Wigan — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Wigan have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Peterborough carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Peterborough have won 0, Wigan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2023, ended Peterborough 1–2 Wigan — a Wigan win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Wigan in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 47% versus Wigan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Wigan 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.20 xG and Wigan 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.471 / defence 0.955 | Wigan attack 0.907 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.151. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.471 — their 2.20 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Peterborough's last 74 games and Wigan's last 29.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 65% | Draw 19% | Wigan 16%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.55 | Draw 5.15 | Wigan 6.30. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Wigan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 40% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 31 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 65% | Draw 19% | Wigan 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Peterborough 2.20 / Wigan 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.471 / def 0.955 | Wigan attack 0.907 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Wigan xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Wigan kick off?
Peterborough vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Peterborough 2 - 3 Wigan.
Where is Peterborough vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Wigan part of?
Peterborough vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 65% chance of winning, Wigan a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Peterborough and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.47) and Wigan's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 74 games and Wigan's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.15
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.20
1.00
Wigan xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
2%
57.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.00 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 40W 13D 22L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 22W 21D 32L from 75 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wigan.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 37 home games (22W 8D 7L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 8W 13D 16L from their last 37 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.04 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Wigan in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 40W 13D 22L in their last 75 games (1.77 PPG), while Wigan have gone 22W 21D 32L in their last 75 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Wigan away?
Peterborough's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 2.00 PPG; Wigan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Wigan in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Feb 2026, when Peterborough won Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Peterborough's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
4
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Wigan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 2, Wigan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 38%, Wigan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Peterborough) and 40% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Wigan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Peterborough's recent matches and 65% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Peterborough's recent games and 40% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Peterborough's recent matches and 84% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Peterborough 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Peterborough 2-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.20 xG and Wigan 1.00 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.47 / defence 0.95 against Wigan attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 74/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 65% | Draw 19% | Wigan 16%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Wigan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Wigan 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Wigan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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