Peterborough 2-3 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 31 as Peterborough welcome Wigan to Weston Homes Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weston Homes Stadium.
Wigan — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Wigan have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Peterborough carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Peterborough, 1 for Wigan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Wigan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Wigan in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 47% versus Wigan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Wigan 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.20 xG and Wigan 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.471 / defence 0.955 | Wigan attack 0.907 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.151. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.471 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 74 Peterborough games / 29 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 65% | Draw 19% | Wigan 16%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Wigan 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 40% | Wigan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 65% | Draw 19% | Wigan 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Peterborough 2.20 / Wigan 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.471 / def 0.955 | Wigan attack 0.907 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Wigan xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Wigan kick off?
Peterborough vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Peterborough 2 - 3 Wigan.
Where is Peterborough vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Wigan part of?
Peterborough vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 65% chance of winning, Wigan a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Peterborough and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Wigan?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Wigan 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Wigan in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Wigan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.47) and Wigan's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.15
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.20
1.00
Wigan xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
2%
57.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.00 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 40W 13D 22L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 22W 21D 32L from 75 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wigan.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 2.00 PPG from 37 outings (22W 8D 7L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 8W 13D 16L from 37 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.04 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Wigan in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 40W 13D 22L in their last 75 games (1.77 PPG), while Wigan have gone 22W 21D 32L in their last 75 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Wigan away?
Peterborough's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 2.00 PPG; Wigan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Wigan in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Feb 2026, when Peterborough won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
4
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Wigan?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Wigan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Peterborough 6-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 38%, Wigan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Peterborough) and 40% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Peterborough's recent matches and 65% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Peterborough's recent games and 40% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Wigan tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Wigan in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Peterborough 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Peterborough 2-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.20 xG and Wigan 1.00 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.47 / defence 0.95 against Wigan attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 74/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 65% | Draw 19% | Wigan 16%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Wigan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Wigan 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Wigan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.