Gillingham 1-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Priestfield Stadium plays host to Gillingham versus Crewe in League One, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Tuesday 1 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gillingham have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Priestfield Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crewe's overall League One record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Crewe's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Crewe are 0.80 PPG clear of Gillingham in recent League One fixtures (1.00 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gillingham lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Crewe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gillingham — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Crewe — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 57% versus Crewe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 39% | Crewe 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.02 xG and Crewe 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.632 / defence 1.859 | Crewe attack 0.673 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.261. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.632 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Gillingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Gillingham games / 28 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 24% | Draw 26% | Crewe 50%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Crewe 2.00. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gillingham 30% | Crewe 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Crewe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 24% | Draw 26% | Crewe 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Gillingham 1.02 / Crewe 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.632 / def 1.859 | Crewe attack 0.673 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Crewe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Crewe xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Crewe kick off?
Gillingham vs Crewe kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Crewe?
Gillingham 1 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Gillingham vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Crewe part of?
Gillingham vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 24% chance of winning, Crewe a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gillingham and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crewe?
Record (1 meetings): Gillingham 0W | Draws 0 | Crewe 1W.
What form are Gillingham and Crewe in?
Gillingham (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Crewe (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.63x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.67x) against Gillingham's defence (1.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
24%
4.10
26%
3.89
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.60
1.58
Crewe xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
5%
19.86
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.58 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gillingham's recent record stands at 3W 10D 15L from 28 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 16L across 28 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.68 PPG for Gillingham against 0.79 for Crewe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 2W 4D 8L from 14 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crewe's away record stands at 1W 3D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gillingham are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.86 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 28 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Crewe in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 3W 10D 15L in their last 28 games (0.68 PPG), while Crewe have gone 5W 7D 16L in their last 28 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Crewe away?
Gillingham's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 0.71 PPG; Crewe away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gillingham have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Crewe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gillingham
3
Draws
4
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Crewe?
From 10 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 3, Crewe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 50%, Crewe 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gillingham) and 43% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Gillingham have failed to score in 43% of games; Crewe in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gillingham's recent matches and 57% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gillingham's recent games and 43% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Crewe tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Crewe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Crewe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Crewe 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.02 xG and Crewe 1.58 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crewe landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.63 / defence 1.86 against Crewe attack 0.67 / defence 1.46, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 24% | Draw 26% | Crewe 50%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 39%, Crewe 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Crewe's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 0.68 PPG, Crewe 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.