AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portsmouth at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Portsmouth in League One, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Tuesday 18 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 2W 6D 2L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Portsmouth's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Portsmouth are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 1 for Portsmouth and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Portsmouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 56% versus Portsmouth 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 56% | Portsmouth 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.96 xG and Portsmouth 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.878 / defence 1.211 | Portsmouth attack 0.765 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.247. Data: 23 AFC Wimbledon games / 24 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 29% | Draw 31% | Portsmouth 39%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Portsmouth 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Portsmouth as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 70% | Portsmouth 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 29% | Draw 31% | Portsmouth 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.96 / Portsmouth 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.878 / def 1.211 | Portsmouth attack 0.765 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Portsmouth xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 29% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Portsmouth 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Portsmouth (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Portsmouth's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (0.77x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.19
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.11
1.16
Portsmouth xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.0 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.16 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 8D 9L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.48 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 2W 6D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.22 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 8D 9L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Portsmouth away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.20 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.20 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
1
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Portsmouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2022, when AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Portsmouth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 70%, Portsmouth 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AFC Wimbledon) and 50% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 40%; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 30% of games; Portsmouth in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Portsmouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 40% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 50% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at AFC Wimbledon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as AFC Wimbledon and Portsmouth drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.96 xG and Portsmouth 1.16 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Portsmouth landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Portsmouth attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 29% | Draw 31% | Portsmouth 39%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 56%, Portsmouth 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Portsmouth's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.13 PPG, Portsmouth 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.