Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Gillingham travel to Hillsborough to take on Sheffield Wednesday. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 November 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hillsborough, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hillsborough. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sheffield Wednesday are significantly better at Hillsborough than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 1W 4D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sheffield Wednesday carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Sheffield Wednesday in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Gillingham in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 50% versus Gillingham 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sheffield Wednesday 38% | Gillingham 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.20 xG and Gillingham 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.930 / defence 0.843 | Gillingham attack 0.749 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.350. Data: 16 Sheffield Wednesday games / 16 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 44% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 26%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Gillingham 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Wednesday 43% | Gillingham 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 44% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.20 / Gillingham 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.930 / def 0.843 | Gillingham attack 0.749 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Gillingham xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 44% chance of winning, Gillingham a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sheffield Wednesday's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.35
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.05
0.85
Gillingham xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.85 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 6W 7D 3L from 16 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 6L across 16 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sheffield Wednesday by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Sheffield Wednesday are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gillingham's away record stands at 1W 4D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.94 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham in 62%.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 6W 7D 3L in their last 16 games (1.56 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 3W 7D 6L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Gillingham away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.00 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Gillingham in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sheffield Wednesday
2
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Gillingham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Gillingham 0-0 Sheffield Wednesday.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Wednesday see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 43%, Gillingham 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Sheffield Wednesday and 29% for Gillingham.
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Gillingham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Sheffield Wednesday's games and 71% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 29% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday and Gillingham finished level at 1-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.20 xG and Gillingham 0.85 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against Gillingham attack 0.75 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 44% | Draw 30% | Gillingham 26%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 38%, Gillingham 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Gillingham's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.