Burton Albion 2-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 29 as Burton Albion welcome Charlton to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 0.80 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burton Albion register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Charlton have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Burton Albion.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charlton have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Charlton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Charlton 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.36 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.850 / defence 0.934 | Charlton attack 1.039 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.163. Data: 73 Burton Albion games / 72 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 41% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 60% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 41% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Burton Albion 1.36 / Charlton 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.850 / def 0.934 | Charlton attack 1.039 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Charlton xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Charlton kick off?
Burton Albion vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Burton Albion 2 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Burton Albion vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Charlton part of?
Burton Albion vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 41% chance of winning, Charlton a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burton Albion and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Record (5 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 2 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.85x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.52
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.49
1.13
Charlton xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.13 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion come into this having played 72 games, going 22W 18D 32L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.28 PPG from 72 outings (23W 23D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.17 PPG, Charlton on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burton Albion's home form reads 14W 11D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.06 points per game from 35 outings (8W 13D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.53 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 67%.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 22W 18D 32L in their last 72 games (1.17 PPG), while Charlton have gone 23W 23D 26L in their last 72 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Charlton away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.51 PPG; Charlton away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 49%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Burton Albion) and 49% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 31% of games; Charlton in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 60% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Burton Albion's recent games and 49% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Charlton tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Charlton in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Charlton 2-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.36 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.85 / defence 0.93 against Charlton attack 1.04 / defence 1.16, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 41% | Draw 28% | Charlton 30%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Charlton 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Charlton's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.17 PPG, Charlton 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.