Cheltenham 0-1 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Carlisle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Carlisle travel to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to take on Cheltenham. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 9 April 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cheltenham have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cheltenham have posted 4W 2D 4L at Completely-Suzuki Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carlisle — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Carlisle have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cheltenham 0.90 PPG, Carlisle 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cheltenham register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Carlisle in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cheltenham have won 1, Carlisle 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Cheltenham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cheltenham trading profile (86 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Carlisle trading profile (86 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 41% versus Carlisle 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 44% | Carlisle 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.68 xG and Carlisle 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.957 / defence 1.223 | Carlisle attack 0.846 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.173. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 86 Cheltenham games / 42 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 48% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 28%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Carlisle 3.57. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cheltenham as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 70% | Carlisle 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Carlisle | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 48% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Cheltenham 1.68 / Carlisle 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.957 / def 1.223 | Carlisle attack 0.846 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Carlisle xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Carlisle kick off?
Cheltenham vs Carlisle kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Cheltenham 0 - 1 Carlisle.
Where is Cheltenham vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Carlisle part of?
Cheltenham vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 48% chance of winning, Carlisle a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cheltenham and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Carlisle?
Record (1 meetings): Cheltenham 1W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 0W.
What form are Cheltenham and Carlisle in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Carlisle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.96) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.12
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.89
1.21
Carlisle xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
5%
19.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.21 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 24W 20D 42L from 86 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 25W 24D 37L across 86 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.07 PPG, Carlisle on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 14W 12D 16L from 42 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 12W 9D 21L across 42 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 24W 20D 42L in their last 86 games (1.07 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 25W 24D 37L in their last 86 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Carlisle away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.29 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cheltenham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cheltenham
0
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Carlisle?
From 4 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 3, Carlisle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cheltenham 3-2 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Carlisle?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 45%, Carlisle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cheltenham) and 45% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cheltenham have failed to score in 33% of games; Carlisle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 50% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cheltenham's recent games and 45% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Carlisle tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Cheltenham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Cheltenham 0-1 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.68 xG and Carlisle 1.21 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cheltenham fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Carlisle attack 0.85 / defence 1.34, drawn from 86/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 48% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 28%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Carlisle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 44%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carlisle's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.07 PPG, Carlisle 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Carlisle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.