Charlton 1-2 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Peterborough at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 5W 3D 2L at The Valley — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Peterborough's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Charlton's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Charlton, 1 for Peterborough and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Peterborough winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Peterborough in-play tendencies (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 66% versus Peterborough 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 55% | Peterborough 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.147 / defence 1.232 | Peterborough attack 1.291 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.144. Peterborough have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Charlton games / 71 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 31% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 45%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Peterborough 2.22. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 80% | Peterborough 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 31% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Charlton 1.47 / Peterborough 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.147 / def 1.232 | Peterborough attack 1.291 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Peterborough xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Peterborough kick off?
Charlton vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Peterborough?
Charlton 1 - 2 Peterborough.
Where is Charlton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Peterborough part of?
Charlton vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 31% chance of winning, Peterborough a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Charlton and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Peterborough?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 2 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Charlton and Peterborough in?
Charlton (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Peterborough (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.15) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
31%
3.23
24%
4.22
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.29
1.82
Peterborough xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
5%
19.94
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Charlton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Charlton and 1.82 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 23W 23D 25L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough's form line: 37W 12D 22L from 71 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (15W 10D 11L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 17W 4D 15L from 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.75 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Peterborough in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 23D 25L in their last 71 games (1.30 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 37W 12D 22L in their last 71 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Peterborough away?
Charlton's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.53 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Charlton or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Peterborough in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2025, when Peterborough won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Charlton
2
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Peterborough have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-0 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 72%, Peterborough 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Charlton) and 56% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Charlton's games and 56% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Charlton's matches and 56% of Peterborough's.
Do Charlton and Peterborough tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.82 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against Peterborough attack 1.29 / defence 0.92, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 31% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 45%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 55%, Peterborough 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.