QPR 2-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MATRADE Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Hull City in Championship (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, QPR have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hull City (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Hull City are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from QPR's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hull City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for QPR, 1 for Hull City and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended QPR 0–3 Hull City — a Hull City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 48% versus Hull City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 49% | Hull City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.43 xG and Hull City 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.911 / defence 1.321 | Hull City attack 1.143 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.196. QPR's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Data: built from QPR's last 65 games and Hull City's last 65.
Result probabilities: QPR 30% | Draw 23% | Hull City 46%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.30 | Draw 4.30 | Hull City 2.16. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (QPR's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 60% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 20 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 30% | Draw 23% | Hull City 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG QPR 1.43 / Hull City 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.911 / def 1.321 | Hull City attack 1.143 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Hull City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Hull City xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Hull City FAQs
What time does QPR vs Hull City kick off?
QPR vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Hull City?
QPR 2 - 0 Hull City.
Where is QPR vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Hull City part of?
QPR vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 20) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 30% chance of winning, Hull City a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both QPR and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.14x) against QPR's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 65 games and Hull City's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
30%
3.30
23%
4.30
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
QPR xG
Total xG
3.23
1.80
Hull City xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
5%
20.05
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are QPR and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for QPR and 1.80 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 17W 15D 33L from 65 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 22W 22D 21L across 65 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for QPR against 1.35 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 7W 7D 17L from their last 31 home games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 9W 11D 11L across their last 31 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Hull City
Blended
QPR (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ QPR vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Hull City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 17W 15D 33L in their last 65 games (1.02 PPG), while Hull City have gone 22W 22D 21L in their last 65 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.90 PPG; Hull City away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between QPR and Hull City, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won Hull City 0-3 QPR on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
QPR
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did QPR and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Hull City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, Hull City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (QPR) and 55% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 42% of games; Hull City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 58% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of QPR's recent games and 55% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of QPR's recent matches and 68% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Hull City 2-0 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.43 xG and Hull City 1.80 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hull City landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.91 / defence 1.32 against Hull City attack 1.14 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 30% | Draw 23% | Hull City 46%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 49%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.02 PPG, Hull City 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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