Leicester 4-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leicester at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leicester host Plymouth at King Power Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Power Stadium, Leicester have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Power Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Plymouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Leicester have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Leicester trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Plymouth trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 53% versus Plymouth 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 58% | Plymouth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.48 xG and Plymouth 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.951 / defence 0.731 | Plymouth attack 0.745 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.196. Leicester's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 19 Leicester games / 19 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 57% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 16%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Plymouth 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Leicester (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Leicester 30% | Plymouth 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 57% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 37% | xG Leicester 1.48 / Plymouth 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.951 / def 0.731 | Plymouth attack 0.745 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Leicester (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Plymouth xG
37%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Plymouth kick off?
Leicester vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Plymouth?
Leicester 4 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Leicester vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Plymouth part of?
Leicester vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 57% chance of winning, Plymouth a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Leicester and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leicester and Plymouth in?
Leicester (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.95x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.72
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.13
0.65
Plymouth xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
4%
27.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Leicester and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Leicester and 0.65 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leicester come into this having played 57 games, going 24W 8D 25L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.84 PPG from 57 outings (31W 12D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Leicester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Leicester's home form reads 12W 4D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (9W 10D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.74 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 24W 8D 25L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 31W 12D 14L in their last 57 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Plymouth away?
Leicester's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.43 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Leicester or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Leicester
0
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Plymouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when Plymouth 1-0 Leicester.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leicester see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 39%, Plymouth 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Leicester) and 54% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Leicester's recent matches and 61% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Leicester's recent games and 54% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and Plymouth tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leicester run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Plymouth 4-0 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.48 xG and Plymouth 0.65 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Leicester beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.95 / defence 0.73 against Plymouth attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 57% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 16%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 58%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Leicester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leicester (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.