Preston 0-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Preston face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
QPR travel to Deepdale to take on Preston in Championship (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Friday 1 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Preston stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Preston at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Preston are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
QPR — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Preston at 0.80 PPG versus QPR's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Preston, 1 for QPR and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2023, ended Preston 2–0 QPR — a Preston win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Preston trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
QPR trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 48% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 50% | QPR 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.49 xG and QPR 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 1.087 / defence 1.255 | QPR attack 0.725 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.202. QPR's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Preston's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Data: built from Preston's last 64 games and QPR's last 64.
Result probabilities: Preston 46% | Draw 26% | QPR 28%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.16 | Draw 3.86 | QPR 3.59. Preston hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preston offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Preston 80% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 19 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 46% | Draw 26% | QPR 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Preston 1.49 / QPR 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 1.087 / def 1.255 | QPR attack 0.725 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Preston (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.09
QPR xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Preston vs QPR FAQs
What time does Preston vs QPR kick off?
Preston vs QPR kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 1 December 2023 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs QPR?
Preston 0 - 2 QPR.
Where is Preston vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs QPR part of?
Preston vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 46% chance of winning, QPR a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Preston and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Preston vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Preston's attack at 1.09x the league average against QPR's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Preston's last 64 games and QPR's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.86
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Preston xG
Total xG
2.58
1.09
QPR xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
6%
15.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Preston vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Preston and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Preston and 1.09 for QPR, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Preston have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 25W 16D 23L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 16W 15D 33L from 64 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Preston are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 32 home games (12W 9D 11L).
On the road, QPR have gone 9W 8D 15L from their last 32 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.92 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
QPR
Blended
Preston (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Preston
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Preston vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Preston and QPR in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 25W 16D 23L in their last 64 games (1.42 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 15D 33L in their last 64 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or QPR away?
Preston's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.41 PPG; QPR away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Preston's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Preston
3
Draws
5
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Preston vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Preston have won 2, QPR have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preston and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: QPR 2-2 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Preston and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 56%, QPR 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Preston) and 47% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Preston have failed to score in 34% of games; QPR in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Preston vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Preston and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Preston's recent matches and 47% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Preston and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Preston's recent games and 47% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Preston's recent matches and 66% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Preston.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Preston 0-2 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.49 xG and QPR 1.09 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Preston fell 1.5 short of their projected output. QPR outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.09 / defence 1.25 against QPR attack 0.72 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 46% | Draw 26% | QPR 28%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 50%, QPR 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Preston arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with QPR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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