QPR 0-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates QPR at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 21 as QPR welcome Plymouth to MATRADE Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 13 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR at MATRADE Loftus Road this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, Plymouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — QPR at 1.10 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 48% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.69 xG and Plymouth 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.956 / defence 1.184 | Plymouth attack 0.694 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.187. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 QPR games / 20 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 54% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 21%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 4.76. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 50% | Plymouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 54% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG QPR 1.69 / Plymouth 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.956 / def 1.184 | Plymouth attack 0.694 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: QPR (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Plymouth xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Plymouth kick off?
QPR vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 13 December 2023 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Plymouth?
QPR 0 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is QPR vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Plymouth part of?
QPR vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 54% chance of winning, Plymouth a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both QPR and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are QPR and Plymouth in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from QPR's attack rating (0.96) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
54%
1.87
25%
3.99
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
QPR xG
Total xG
2.66
0.97
Plymouth xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are QPR and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for QPR and 0.97 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
QPR come into this having played 66 games, going 18W 15D 33L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.86 PPG from 66 outings (37W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of QPR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
QPR's home form reads 8W 7D 17L across 32 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.34 points per game from 32 outings (11W 10D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Plymouth in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 18W 15D 33L in their last 66 games (1.05 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 37W 12D 17L in their last 66 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.97 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.34 PPG.
Have QPR or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Plymouth in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
QPR's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
0
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Plymouth have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Plymouth 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Plymouth?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 50%, Plymouth 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (QPR) and 59% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of QPR's recent matches and 59% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of QPR's matches and 59% of Plymouth's.
Do QPR and Plymouth tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR and Plymouth finished level at 0-0 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.69 xG and Plymouth 0.97 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Plymouth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Plymouth attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 66/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 54% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 21%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 48%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.