QPR 0-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
QPR welcome Plymouth to MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship (matchday 21). Kick-off is Wednesday 13 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
QPR — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
QPR at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Plymouth away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — QPR at 1.10 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 48% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.69 xG and Plymouth 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.956 / defence 1.184 | Plymouth attack 0.694 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.187. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing QPR's projected output up. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.694 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from QPR's last 66 games and Plymouth's last 20.
Result probabilities: QPR 54% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 21%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.87 | Draw 3.99 | Plymouth 4.69. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 50% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 21 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 54% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG QPR 1.69 / Plymouth 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.956 / def 1.184 | Plymouth attack 0.694 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: QPR (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Plymouth xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does QPR vs Plymouth kick off?
QPR vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 13 December 2023 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Plymouth?
QPR 0 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is QPR vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Plymouth part of?
QPR vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 54% chance of winning, Plymouth a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both QPR and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will QPR vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from QPR's attack rating (0.96) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 66 games and Plymouth's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
54%
1.87
25%
3.99
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
QPR xG
Total xG
2.66
0.97
Plymouth xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are QPR and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for QPR and 0.97 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
QPR come into this having played 66 games, going 18W 15D 33L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.86 PPG from 66 outings (37W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of QPR — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
QPR's home form reads 8W 7D 17L across their last 32 home games, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.34 points per game from their last 32 away games (11W 10D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
QPR (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ QPR vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Plymouth in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 18W 15D 33L in their last 66 games (1.05 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 37W 12D 17L in their last 66 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.97 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.34 PPG.
Have QPR or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Plymouth in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
QPR's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
0
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 1, Plymouth have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2025: Plymouth 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Plymouth?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 50%, Plymouth 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (QPR) and 59% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of QPR's recent matches and 59% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of QPR's matches and 59% of Plymouth's.
Do QPR and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of QPR's recent matches and 69% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR and Plymouth finished level at 0-0 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.69 xG and Plymouth 0.97 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Plymouth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Plymouth attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 66/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 54% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 21%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 48%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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