Sunderland 2-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stadium of Light this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
West Brom have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. West Brom are 0.80 PPG clear of Sunderland in recent Championship fixtures (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sunderland have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, West Brom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sunderland lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 57% versus West Brom 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 57% | West Brom 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.29 xG and West Brom 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.074 / defence 1.124 | West Brom attack 1.105 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.195. Data: 65 Sunderland games / 65 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 33% | Draw 26% | West Brom 42%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | West Brom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 60% | West Brom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 33% | Draw 26% | West Brom 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Sunderland 1.29 / West Brom 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.074 / def 1.124 | West Brom attack 1.105 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: West Brom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.48
West Brom xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs West Brom kick off?
Sunderland vs West Brom kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs West Brom?
Sunderland 2 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Sunderland vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs West Brom part of?
Sunderland vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 33% chance of winning, West Brom a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sunderland and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and West Brom?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 0 | West Brom 1W.
What form are Sunderland and West Brom in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. West Brom (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.07) and West Brom's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (1.10x) against Sunderland's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.88
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.78
1.48
West Brom xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sunderland and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.48 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 26W 17D 22L from 65 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 21L across 65 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Sunderland against 1.51 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 13W 8D 11L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 10W 8D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.37 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and West Brom in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 26W 17D 22L in their last 65 games (1.46 PPG), while West Brom have gone 27W 17D 21L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or West Brom away?
Sunderland's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.47 PPG; West Brom away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Sunderland or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, West Brom in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sunderland
1
Draws
1
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and West Brom?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 4, West Brom have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when West Brom 0-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and West Brom?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 62%, West Brom 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Sunderland) and 47% (West Brom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sunderland's games and 59% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Sunderland's matches and 47% of West Brom's.
Do Sunderland and West Brom tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, West Brom in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat West Brom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat West Brom 2-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.29 xG and West Brom 1.48 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against West Brom attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 33% | Draw 26% | West Brom 42%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 57%, West Brom 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.46 PPG, West Brom 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.