Preston 1-0 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Preston face Portsmouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deepdale plays host to Preston versus Portsmouth in Championship (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Preston have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Preston's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Portsmouth's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portsmouth away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Preston against 1.60 for Portsmouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Portsmouth edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Preston 0–1 Portsmouth — a Portsmouth win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 62% versus Portsmouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 46% | Portsmouth 54%). Note also that Portsmouth surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Preston recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.49 xG and Portsmouth 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.896 / defence 0.998 | Portsmouth attack 0.731 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.136. Portsmouth's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Preston's projected output up. Portsmouth's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Preston's last 76 games and Portsmouth's last 74.
Result probabilities: Preston 52% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 20%. Fair-value odds: Preston 1.94 | Draw 3.49 | Portsmouth 5.06. Preston hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Preston 60% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 52% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Preston 1.49 / Portsmouth 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.896 / def 0.998 | Portsmouth attack 0.731 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Preston (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Preston xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Portsmouth xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Preston vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does Preston vs Portsmouth kick off?
Preston vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:01 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Portsmouth?
Preston 1 - 0 Portsmouth.
Where is Preston vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Portsmouth part of?
Preston vs Portsmouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 52% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Preston and Portsmouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Preston vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Preston's attack at 0.90x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (0.73x) against Preston's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Preston's last 76 games and Portsmouth's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
52%
1.94
29%
3.49
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Preston xG
Total xG
2.32
0.83
Portsmouth xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
22.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Preston vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Preston and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Preston and 0.83 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Preston have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 31D 22L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 22W 21D 31L from 74 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Preston against 1.18 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 36 home games (12W 17D 7L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 5W 10D 21L from their last 36 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Portsmouth's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Preston are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.15 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preston have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
Preston (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Preston
Current Season
Portsmouth
Current Season
❓ Preston vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are Preston and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 21W 31D 22L in their last 74 games (1.27 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 22W 21D 31L in their last 74 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Portsmouth away?
Preston's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.47 PPG; Portsmouth away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preston have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Preston
0
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Preston vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Portsmouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Preston have won 2, Portsmouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Preston 1-0 Portsmouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 61%, Portsmouth 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Preston) and 56% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Preston keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Portsmouth in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Preston vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Preston and Portsmouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Preston's games and 56% of Portsmouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Preston and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Preston's recent games and 56% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Preston's recent matches and 72% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Portsmouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Portsmouth 1-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.49 xG and Portsmouth 0.83 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Portsmouth attack 0.73 / defence 1.26, drawn from 76/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 52% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 20%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Portsmouth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Portsmouth's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.27 PPG, Portsmouth 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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