Hull City 2-3 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Bristol City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bristol City make the trip to MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hull City at MKM Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MKM Stadium this season.
Bristol City's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Bristol City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Hull City. A 1.00 PPG lead over Bristol City (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Bristol City have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Hull City's 1, with 4 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–4 with Bristol City winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bristol City have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Hull City — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Bristol City — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Bristol City 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 43% | Bristol City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.15 xG and Bristol City 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.908 / defence 1.040 | Bristol City attack 0.803 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.136. Data: 76 Hull City games / 76 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 32% | Bristol City 29%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Bristol City 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Bristol City lead the H2H ledger, but Hull City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Bristol City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:01 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 32% | Bristol City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Hull City 1.15 / Bristol City 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.908 / def 1.040 | Bristol City attack 0.803 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Hull City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bristol City xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Bristol City kick off?
Hull City vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:01 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Bristol City?
Hull City 2 - 3 Bristol City.
Where is Hull City vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Bristol City part of?
Hull City vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 39% chance of winning, Bristol City a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hull City and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Bristol City?
Record (9 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 4 | Bristol City 4W.
What form are Hull City and Bristol City in?
Hull City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bristol City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hull City's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Bristol City's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.80x) against Hull City's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.10
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.10
0.95
Bristol City xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hull City and 0.95 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 76 games, going 28W 19D 29L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Bristol City sit at 1.41 PPG from 76 outings (28W 23D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Hull City against 1.41 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 13W 10D 14L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Bristol City have taken 1.08 points per game from 37 outings (9W 13D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 28W 19D 29L in their last 76 games (1.36 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 28W 23D 25L in their last 76 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Bristol City away?
Hull City's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.32 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bristol City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bristol City won 5-0 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hull City
4
Draws
5
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Bristol City?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Bristol City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Hull City 2-3 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 57%, Bristol City 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hull City) and 40% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 32% of games; Bristol City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Bristol City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Hull City's recent matches and 46% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hull City's recent games and 40% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Bristol City tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bristol City defy the odds to beat Hull City 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol City beat Hull City 2-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.15 xG and Bristol City 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bristol City outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Bristol City attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 39% | Draw 32% | Bristol City 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bristol City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 43%, Bristol City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bristol City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.36 PPG, Bristol City 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.