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Poisson model rates Charlton at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees QPR travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 February 2026, 20:01 UTC.

Form Guide

Charlton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 5W 2D 3L at The Valley — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.

Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

QPR away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.20 PPG, QPR 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Charlton, 1 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with QPR winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Charlton in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

QPR in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 45% versus QPR 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | QPR 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.02 xG and QPR 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.803 / defence 1.052 | QPR attack 0.780 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.148. Data: 29 Charlton games / 76 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 34% | QPR 31%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | QPR 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 60% | QPR 40%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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