Preston 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Preston host Burnley at Deepdale in Championship, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Preston have posted 4W 4D 2L at Deepdale — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Preston) versus 1.40 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 44% versus Burnley 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Preston 39% | Burnley 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 0.76 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.624 / defence 0.859 | Burnley attack 1.151 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.052. Preston's attack strength of 0.624 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Preston games / 8 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 26% | Draw 32% | Burnley 41%. Fair-value odds: Preston 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Burnley 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Preston's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates are neutral: Preston 50% | Burnley 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 26% | Draw 32% | Burnley 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Preston 0.76 / Burnley 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.624 / def 0.859 | Burnley attack 1.151 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Burnley (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Burnley xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Burnley kick off?
Preston vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Burnley?
Preston 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Preston vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Burnley part of?
Preston vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 26% chance of winning, Burnley a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Preston and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preston and Burnley in?
Preston (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Burnley (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Preston's attack rating (0.62) and Burnley's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
26%
3.82
32%
3.08
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Preston xG
Total xG
1.80
1.04
Burnley xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 17.2 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Preston and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Preston and 1.04 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Preston have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 16W 18D 12L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley's form line: 10W 18D 18L from 46 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.43 PPG, Burnley on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (7W 12D 4L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 4W 9D 10L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.04 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Preston have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Burnley in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 16W 18D 12L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Burnley have gone 10W 18D 18L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Burnley away?
Preston's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.43 PPG; Burnley away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Preston or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Burnley in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Preston
3
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Preston have won 0, Burnley have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Preston 0-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 61%, Burnley 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Preston) and 35% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Preston keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Preston have failed to score in 30% of games; Burnley in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Preston's games and 52% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Preston's recent games and 35% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Burnley tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Burnley in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preston and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 10, as Preston and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 0.76 xG and Burnley 1.04 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.62 / defence 0.86 against Burnley attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 26% | Draw 32% | Burnley 41%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 39%, Burnley 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.43 PPG, Burnley 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.