Burnley 2-1 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Bristol City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Bristol City meet at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bristol City have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bristol City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bristol City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Burnley, 1.40 for Bristol City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Burnley have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bristol City in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bristol City — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 51% versus Bristol City 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 34% | Bristol City 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.89 xG and Bristol City 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.002 / defence 1.193 | Bristol City attack 1.323 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.089. Bristol City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bristol City have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Burnley games / 55 Bristol City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 42% | Draw 22% | Bristol City 36%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Bristol City 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Bristol City 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 42% | Draw 22% | Bristol City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Burnley 1.89 / Bristol City 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.002 / def 1.193 | Bristol City attack 1.323 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Burnley (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Bristol City xG
70%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Bristol City kick off?
Burnley vs Bristol City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Bristol City?
Burnley 2 - 1 Bristol City.
Where is Burnley vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Bristol City part of?
Burnley vs Bristol City is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 42% chance of winning, Bristol City a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Burnley and Bristol City will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Bristol City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Bristol City in?
Burnley (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Bristol City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burnley's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (1.32x) against Burnley's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 9/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
42%
2.36
22%
4.58
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.60
1.72
Bristol City xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Burnley and 1.72 for Bristol City, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 10W 19D 18L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bristol City's form line: 16W 9D 22L from 47 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Bristol City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Burnley against 1.21 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L).
On the road, Bristol City have gone 5W 4D 14L from 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.49 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bristol City in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Bristol City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 10W 19D 18L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Bristol City away?
Burnley's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.17 PPG; Bristol City away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Burnley have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Burnley
0
Draws
0
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Bristol City?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 4, Bristol City have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Bristol City last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Burnley 1-0 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Bristol City?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Bristol City 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Burnley) and 70% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 35% of games; Bristol City in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Bristol City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Burnley's games and 65% of Bristol City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Bristol City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Burnley's recent games and 70% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Bristol City tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bristol City in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Bristol City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Bristol City 2-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.89 xG and Bristol City 1.72 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Bristol City attack 1.32 / defence 1.41, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 42% | Draw 22% | Bristol City 36%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 34%, Bristol City 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bristol City's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.04 PPG, Bristol City 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.