Hull City 0-3 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Stoke City travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 13 September 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at The MKM Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hull City at 1.20 PPG versus Stoke City's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hull City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stoke City in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hull City have won 0, Stoke City 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Stoke City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Stoke City in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 37% versus Stoke City 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 35% | Stoke City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.50 xG and Stoke City 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.026 / defence 1.167 | Stoke City attack 0.959 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.026. Data: 54 Hull City games / 54 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 45% | Draw 26% | Stoke City 29%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Stoke City 3.45. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 60% | Stoke City 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 45% | Draw 26% | Stoke City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Hull City 1.50 / Stoke City 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.026 / def 1.167 | Stoke City attack 0.959 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Hull City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Stoke City xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Stoke City kick off?
Hull City vs Stoke City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Stoke City?
Hull City 0 - 3 Stoke City.
Where is Hull City vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Stoke City part of?
Hull City vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 45% chance of winning, Stoke City a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hull City and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Stoke City?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 0 | Stoke City 2W.
What form are Hull City and Stoke City in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Stoke City (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.03x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.90
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.65
1.15
Stoke City xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hull City and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hull City and 1.15 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 17W 11D 26L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stoke City's form line: 19W 13D 22L from 54 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.15 PPG, Stoke City on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (10W 4D 13L).
On the road, Stoke City have gone 8W 6D 13L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.20 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Stoke City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 17W 11D 26L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 19W 13D 22L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Stoke City away?
Hull City's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.26 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Hull City or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stoke City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2022, when Stoke City won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
6
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Stoke City?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Stoke City have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Hull City 0-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 41%, Stoke City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hull City) and 52% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Hull City's recent matches and 59% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hull City's recent games and 52% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Stoke City tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stoke City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Hull City 0-3 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.50 xG and Stoke City 1.15 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Stoke City outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 1.17 against Stoke City attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 45% | Draw 26% | Stoke City 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 35%, Stoke City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stoke City's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.15 PPG, Stoke City 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.