Millwall 0-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Millwall at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Den plays host to Millwall versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Wednesday 14 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Millwall have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall at The Den this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Den. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Millwall are significantly better at The Den than their overall form suggests.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Millwall against 1.40 for QPR. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Millwall lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Millwall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Millwall — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
QPR — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 48% versus QPR 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 35% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.56 xG and QPR 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.073 / defence 0.845 | QPR attack 1.031 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.052. Data: 54 Millwall games / 54 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 52% | Draw 25% | QPR 22%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 4.55. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Millwall at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 30% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 52% | Draw 25% | QPR 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Millwall 1.56 / QPR 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.073 / def 0.845 | QPR attack 1.031 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Millwall (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.92
QPR xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs QPR kick off?
Millwall vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs QPR?
Millwall 0 - 2 QPR.
Where is Millwall vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs QPR part of?
Millwall vs QPR is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 52% chance of winning, QPR a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Millwall and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Millwall 1W | Draws 1 | QPR 0W.
What form are Millwall and QPR in?
Millwall (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. QPR (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Millwall's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.03x) against Millwall's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.93
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.48
0.92
QPR xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Millwall and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Millwall and 0.92 for QPR, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 16D 17L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.43 PPG from 54 outings (22W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Millwall against 1.43 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Millwall's home form reads 16W 6D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Millwall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (10W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.33 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and QPR in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 21W 16D 17L in their last 54 games (1.46 PPG), while QPR have gone 22W 11D 21L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or QPR away?
Millwall's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 2.00 PPG; QPR away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Millwall go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Millwall
2
Draws
2
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Millwall have won 6, QPR have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Millwall 2-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and QPR?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 44%, QPR 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Millwall) and 63% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; QPR in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Millwall's recent matches and 63% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Millwall's recent games and 63% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and QPR tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, QPR in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Millwall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Millwall 0-2 at The Den, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.56 xG and QPR 0.92 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Millwall fell 1.6 short of their projected output. QPR outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 1.07 / defence 0.84 against QPR attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 52% | Draw 25% | QPR 22%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a QPR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 35%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.46 PPG, QPR 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.