Swansea 0-1 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Utd at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Sheffield Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Swansea.com Stadium plays host to Swansea versus Sheffield Utd in Championship, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sheffield Utd have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Utd's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sheffield Utd are 1.10 PPG clear of Swansea in recent Championship fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Swansea lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–4 with Sheffield Utd winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 48% versus Sheffield Utd 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 50% | Sheffield Utd 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.96 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.822 / defence 1.258 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.085 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.026. Data: 54 Swansea games / 54 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 26% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Utd 47%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sheffield Utd 2.13. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Utd are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 50% | Sheffield Utd 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 26% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Utd 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Swansea 0.96 / Sheffield Utd 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.822 / def 1.258 | Sheffield Utd attack 1.085 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sheffield Utd xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Swansea vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Sheffield Utd?
Swansea 0 - 1 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Swansea vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Swansea vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 26% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Swansea and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Sheffield Utd?
Record (2 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Utd 1W.
What form are Swansea and Sheffield Utd in?
Swansea (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sheffield Utd's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sheffield Utd's attack (1.08x) against Swansea's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
26%
3.86
27%
3.69
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.36
1.40
Sheffield Utd xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
6%
15.66
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Swansea and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Swansea and 1.40 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 18W 16D 20L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Utd's form line: 27W 13D 14L from 54 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sheffield Utd are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Swansea.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L).
On the road, Sheffield Utd have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Swansea are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.52 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Utd in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Sheffield Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 18W 16D 20L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 27W 13D 14L in their last 54 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Swansea's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.44 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Swansea or Sheffield Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sheffield Utd in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Utd won 4-0 on 19 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Swansea
2
Draws
5
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Sheffield Utd?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 1, Sheffield Utd have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Sheffield Utd 3-3 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Swansea see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 48%, Sheffield Utd 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 44% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 30% of games; Sheffield Utd in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Sheffield Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Swansea's recent matches and 52% of Sheffield Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 44% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Swansea 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Swansea 0-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.96 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.40 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.82 / defence 1.26 against Sheffield Utd attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 26% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Utd 47%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 50%, Sheffield Utd 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.