Middlesbrough 0-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Middlesbrough vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Plymouth travel to Riverside Stadium to take on Middlesbrough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Middlesbrough have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Plymouth — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plymouth away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Middlesbrough) versus 1.00 (Plymouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Middlesbrough, 0 for Plymouth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Plymouth in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 62% versus Plymouth 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 62% | Plymouth 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.39 xG and Plymouth 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 0.870 / defence 1.006 | Plymouth attack 0.739 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Data: 78 Middlesbrough games / 33 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 47% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 25%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Plymouth 4.00. Middlesbrough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Middlesbrough 50% | Plymouth 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 47% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Middlesbrough 1.39 / Plymouth 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 0.870 / def 1.006 | Plymouth attack 0.739 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Plymouth xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Plymouth kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Middlesbrough 0 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Plymouth part of?
Middlesbrough vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 47% chance of winning, Plymouth a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Middlesbrough and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Middlesbrough 0W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Plymouth in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Plymouth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Middlesbrough's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.67
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
Plymouth xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 0.94 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 79 outings, Middlesbrough have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 35W 14D 30L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 40W 18D 21L from 79 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Middlesbrough on 1.51 PPG, Plymouth on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Middlesbrough have posted 1.69 PPG from 39 outings (19W 9D 11L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 12W 13D 14L from 39 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.68 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Middlesbrough have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 35W 14D 30L in their last 79 games (1.51 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 40W 18D 21L in their last 79 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Plymouth away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.69 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Middlesbrough or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Middlesbrough have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Middlesbrough's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Middlesbrough
2
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Middlesbrough 2-1 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 51%, Plymouth 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Middlesbrough) and 59% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Middlesbrough's games and 62% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Middlesbrough vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 59% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Plymouth tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Middlesbrough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Middlesbrough 0-2 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.39 xG and Plymouth 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Middlesbrough fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Plymouth attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 78/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 47% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 25%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 62%, Plymouth 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.51 PPG, Plymouth 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.