Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Sunderland travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ipswich at 1.60 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Sunderland and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Ipswich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sunderland trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 50% versus Sunderland 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 58% | Sunderland 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.41 xG and Sunderland 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.274 / defence 1.121 | Sunderland attack 0.842 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.191. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sunderland's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 26 Ipswich games / 72 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 44% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 30%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Sunderland 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 80% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 44% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Ipswich 1.41 / Sunderland 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.274 / def 1.121 | Sunderland attack 0.842 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sunderland xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Sunderland kick off?
Ipswich vs Sunderland kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Ipswich 2 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Ipswich vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Sunderland part of?
Ipswich vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 44% chance of winning, Sunderland a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ipswich and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sunderland?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 1W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Sunderland in?
Ipswich (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
44%
2.30
26%
3.78
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.53
1.12
Sunderland xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.12 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ipswich's recent record stands at 44W 21D 7L from 72 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 30W 18D 24L across 72 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sunderland heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 25W 9D 2L from 36 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 14W 10D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.42 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 44W 21D 7L in their last 72 games (2.12 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 30W 18D 24L in their last 72 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Sunderland away?
Ipswich's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 2.33 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Sunderland runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ipswich's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ipswich
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sunderland?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 2, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Sunderland?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 53%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Ipswich) and 44% (Sunderland). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sunderland in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ipswich's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Ipswich's matches and 44% of Sunderland's.
Do Ipswich and Sunderland tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Sunderland 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Sunderland 2-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.41 xG and Sunderland 1.12 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.27 / defence 1.12 against Sunderland attack 0.84 / defence 0.78, drawn from 26/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 44% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 30%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 58%, Sunderland 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.