Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ipswich at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ipswich face Sunderland.

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Analysis & Preview

Sunderland travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich in Championship (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ipswich stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Ipswich have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Ipswich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Sunderland — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Sunderland away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ipswich at 1.60 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Sunderland and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Ipswich 2–1 Sunderland — a Ipswich win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Ipswich trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Sunderland trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 50% versus Sunderland 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 58% | Sunderland 54%). Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Ipswich recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 58% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.41 xG and Sunderland 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.274 / defence 1.121 | Sunderland attack 0.842 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.191. Ipswich carry an above-average attack rating of 1.274 — their 1.41 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sunderland bring a tight defence (rating 0.780, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Ipswich's projected output down. Data: built from Ipswich's last 26 games and Sunderland's last 72.

Result probabilities: Ipswich 44% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 30%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.30 | Draw 3.78 | Sunderland 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Ipswich's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 80% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).

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