West Brom 4-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Blackburn travel to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom in Championship (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, West Brom stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
West Brom's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — West Brom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Blackburn have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Blackburn have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
West Brom are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, West Brom have won 0, Blackburn 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended West Brom 1–2 Blackburn — a Blackburn win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
West Brom trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Blackburn trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 49% versus Blackburn 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 39% | Blackburn 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.83 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.951 / defence 0.715 | Blackburn attack 1.146 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.184. Blackburn's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing West Brom's projected output up. West Brom have a tight defence (rating 0.715), which is pulling Blackburn's projected output down. Data: built from West Brom's last 72 games and Blackburn's last 72.
Result probabilities: West Brom 58% | Draw 23% | Blackburn 20%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.74 | Draw 4.38 | Blackburn 5.09. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (West Brom's last 10 home games and Blackburn's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: West Brom 30% (last 10 home games) | Blackburn 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, matchday 27 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 58% | Draw 23% | Blackburn 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG West Brom 1.83 / Blackburn 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.951 / def 0.715 | Blackburn attack 1.146 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: West Brom (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Blackburn xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Brom vs Blackburn FAQs
What time does West Brom vs Blackburn kick off?
West Brom vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Blackburn?
West Brom 4 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is West Brom vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Blackburn part of?
West Brom vs Blackburn is a Championship fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 58% chance of winning, Blackburn a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both West Brom and Blackburn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Brom vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates West Brom's attack at 0.95x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Brom's last 72 games and Blackburn's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.38
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.80
0.97
Blackburn xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
3%
31.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Brom vs Blackburn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are West Brom and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for West Brom and 0.97 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Blackburn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Brom's recent record stands at 30W 18D 24L from 72 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 30W 11D 31L across 72 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.50 PPG, Blackburn on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 19W 10D 7L from their last 36 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 12W 6D 18L across their last 36 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.26 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
West Brom (Home) vs Blackburn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Brom
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ West Brom vs Blackburn Form FAQs
What form are West Brom and Blackburn in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 30W 18D 24L in their last 72 games (1.50 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 30W 11D 31L in their last 72 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Blackburn away?
West Brom's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.86 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.17 PPG.
Have West Brom or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Blackburn in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Jan 2024, when West Brom won West Brom 4-1 Blackburn.
West Brom's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Brom
4
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ West Brom vs Blackburn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Blackburn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Brom have won 3, Blackburn have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Blackburn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: West Brom 3-2 Blackburn.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 42%, Blackburn 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (West Brom) and 61% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Blackburn in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Brom vs Blackburn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Brom and Blackburn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of West Brom's recent matches and 44% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Brom and Blackburn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of West Brom's recent games and 61% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Blackburn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of West Brom's recent matches and 72% of Blackburn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant West Brom run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Blackburn 4-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.83 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. West Brom beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.95 / defence 0.71 against Blackburn attack 1.15 / defence 1.36, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 58% | Draw 23% | Blackburn 20%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 39%, Blackburn 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackburn's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.50 PPG, Blackburn 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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