Stoke City 0-0 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stoke City and Ipswich meet at bet365 Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stoke City's overall Championship record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City's home record at bet365 Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ipswich have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ipswich have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Ipswich are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stoke City, 1 for Ipswich and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Ipswich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stoke City half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 42% versus Ipswich 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 41% | Ipswich 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 0.86 xG and Ipswich 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.607 / defence 0.964 | Ipswich attack 0.963 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.176. Stoke City's attack strength of 0.607 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Stoke City games / 25 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 28% | Draw 31% | Ipswich 40%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Ipswich 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stoke City 30% | Ipswich 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 28% | Draw 31% | Ipswich 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Stoke City 0.86 / Ipswich 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.607 / def 0.964 | Ipswich attack 0.963 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ipswich xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs Ipswich kick off?
Stoke City vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 January 2024 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Stoke City 0 - 0 Ipswich.
Where is Stoke City vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs Ipswich part of?
Stoke City vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 28% chance of winning, Ipswich a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stoke City and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Stoke City 0W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Stoke City and Ipswich in?
Stoke City (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stoke City's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Ipswich's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (0.96x) against Stoke City's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 71/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
28%
3.55
31%
3.18
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Stoke City xG
Total xG
1.95
1.09
Ipswich xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Stoke City and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.09 for Ipswich, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stoke City's recent record stands at 21W 18D 32L from 71 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 44W 20D 7L across 71 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ipswich by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stoke City heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 10W 8D 17L from 35 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 19W 11D 5L across 35 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stoke City are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.10 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 21W 18D 32L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 44W 20D 7L in their last 71 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.09 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Stoke City or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ipswich in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stoke City have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stoke City
2
Draws
2
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 0, Ipswich have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Stoke City 3-3 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 34%, Ipswich 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stoke City) and 49% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 43%; Stoke City have failed to score in 49% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Stoke City's recent matches and 49% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stoke City's recent games and 49% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and Ipswich tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stoke City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Stoke City and Ipswich drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 0.86 xG and Ipswich 1.09 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stoke City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ipswich landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.61 / defence 0.96 against Ipswich attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 28% | Draw 31% | Ipswich 40%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 41%, Ipswich 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.