Hull City 1-2 Norwich – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hull City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Norwich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Norwich at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's home record at The MKM Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norwich stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Norwich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Norwich have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hull City at 1.30 PPG versus Norwich's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Hull City have won 1, Norwich 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Norwich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Norwich in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Norwich 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | Norwich 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.86 xG and Norwich 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.070 / defence 0.942 | Norwich attack 1.139 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Norwich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Hull City games / 72 Norwich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 51% | Draw 23% | Norwich 26%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Norwich 3.85. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Norwich 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Norwich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 51% | Draw 23% | Norwich 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Hull City 1.86 / Norwich 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.070 / def 0.942 | Norwich attack 1.139 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Hull City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Norwich xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Norwich kick off?
Hull City vs Norwich kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 12 January 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Norwich?
Hull City 1 - 2 Norwich.
Where is Hull City vs Norwich being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Norwich part of?
Hull City vs Norwich is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Norwich?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 51% chance of winning, Norwich a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Norwich?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hull City and Norwich will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Norwich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Norwich?
Record (3 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 0 | Norwich 2W.
What form are Hull City and Norwich in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Norwich (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hull City's attack rating (1.07) and Norwich's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Norwich's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.40
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Hull City xG
Total xG
3.13
1.27
Norwich xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
4%
24.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Norwich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hull City and Norwich expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Hull City and 1.27 for Norwich, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Norwich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 25W 22D 25L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norwich's form line: 27W 16D 29L from 72 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Norwich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.35 PPG, Norwich on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (15W 10D 11L).
On the road, Norwich have gone 12W 9D 15L from 36 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Norwich are on 1.38 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Norwich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Norwich in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 25W 22D 25L in their last 72 games (1.35 PPG), while Norwich have gone 27W 16D 29L in their last 72 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Norwich away?
Hull City's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.53 PPG; Norwich away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hull City go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Norwich won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Norwich specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Norwich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Norwich?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Norwich have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Norwich last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Norwich.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Norwich?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 53%, Norwich 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 58% (Norwich).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Norwich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Norwich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Hull City's games and 64% of Norwich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Norwich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 58% of Norwich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Norwich tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Norwich in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Norwich defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Hull City 1-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.86 xG and Norwich 1.27 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hull City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Norwich attack 1.14 / defence 1.24, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 51% | Draw 23% | Norwich 26%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Norwich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, Norwich 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Norwich's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Norwich 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.