Hull City 1-3 QPR – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hull City at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs QPR encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Hull City and QPR meet at MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Hull City have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Hull City at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

QPR (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, QPR have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Hull City's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Hull City, 5 for QPR and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Hull City 2–3 QPR — a QPR win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus QPR 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 44% | QPR 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hull City surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while QPR have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.15 xG and QPR 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.964 / defence 1.163 | QPR attack 0.728 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.164. QPR's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Hull City's last 77 games and QPR's last 78.

Result probabilities: Hull City 38% | Draw 32% | QPR 30%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.61 | Draw 3.15 | QPR 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hull City 50% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).

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