Southampton 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Southampton at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Southampton vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Mary's Stadium plays host to Southampton versus Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Southampton (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Southampton at St. Mary's Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Southampton are significantly better at St. Mary's Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Charlton's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Southampton, 1.20 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Southampton, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 5–1 with Southampton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Southampton half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Southampton 63% versus Charlton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Southampton 60% | Charlton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Southampton 1.45 xG and Charlton 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Southampton attack 0.922 / defence 0.872 | Charlton attack 0.796 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.175. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Southampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Southampton games / 32 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Southampton 51% | Draw 29% | Charlton 20%. Fair-value odds: Southampton 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Charlton 5.00. Southampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Southampton at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Southampton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Southampton 50% | Charlton 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Southampton vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: St. Mary's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Southampton 51% | Draw 29% | Charlton 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Southampton 1.45 / Charlton 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Southampton attack 0.922 / def 0.872 | Charlton attack 0.796 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Southampton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Southampton xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Charlton xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Southampton vs Charlton kick off?
Southampton vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium.
What was the final score in Southampton vs Charlton?
Southampton 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Southampton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at St. Mary's Stadium.
What competition is Southampton vs Charlton part of?
Southampton vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Southampton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Southampton a 51% chance of winning, Charlton a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Southampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Southampton and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Southampton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Southampton 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Southampton and Charlton in?
Southampton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Southampton's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.80x) against Southampton's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Southampton Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.47
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Southampton xG
Total xG
2.26
0.81
Charlton xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
5%
21.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Southampton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Southampton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Southampton and 0.81 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Southampton vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Southampton have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 14W 16D 40L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 32W 18D 20L from 70 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Charlton are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Southampton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Southampton have posted 0.94 PPG from 34 outings (8W 8D 18L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 11W 9D 14L from 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Southampton are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.27 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Southampton have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Charlton in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Southampton
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Southampton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Southampton have gone 14W 16D 40L in their last 70 games (0.83 PPG), while Charlton have gone 32W 18D 20L in their last 70 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Southampton at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Southampton at home: 0.94 PPG; Charlton away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Southampton or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Southampton have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Charlton in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Southampton
1
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Charlton?
From 2 meetings on record, Southampton have won 1, Charlton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Southampton and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Southampton 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Southampton and Charlton?
Southampton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Southampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Southampton 53%, Charlton 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Southampton) and 50% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 35%; Southampton have failed to score in 35% of games; Charlton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Southampton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Southampton play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Southampton's recent matches and 38% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Southampton vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Southampton's recent games and 50% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Southampton and Charlton tend to score early?
Southampton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Charlton in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Southampton and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Southampton and Charlton drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.45 xG and Charlton 0.81 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Charlton attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Southampton 51% | Draw 29% | Charlton 20%, with Southampton to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 60%, Charlton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Southampton's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.