Hull City 4-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Derby travel to MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at MKM Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Derby — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hull City 1.70 PPG, Derby 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Derby have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Hull City.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Derby winning.
It is worth noting that Derby have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 45% | Derby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.09 xG and Derby 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.953 / defence 1.285 | Derby attack 1.236 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.190. Derby have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 78 Hull City games / 79 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 21% | Draw 24% | Derby 55%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Derby (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 21% | Draw 24% | Derby 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Hull City 1.09 / Derby 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.953 / def 1.285 | Derby attack 1.236 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Derby (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Derby xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Derby kick off?
Hull City vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Derby?
Hull City 4 - 2 Derby.
Where is Hull City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Derby part of?
Hull City vs Derby is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 21% chance of winning, Derby a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hull City and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Derby?
Record (5 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 4W.
What form are Hull City and Derby in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Derby (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.95x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
21%
4.82
24%
4.11
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.98
1.89
Derby xG
4.82
21%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
15%
6.62
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
3%
31.93
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hull City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Hull City and 1.89 for Derby, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 78 games, going 28W 19D 31L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.26 PPG from 78 outings (26W 20D 32L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.32 PPG, Derby on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hull City's home form reads 13W 9D 16L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.18 points per game from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.19 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Derby in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 28W 19D 31L in their last 78 games (1.32 PPG), while Derby have gone 26W 20D 32L in their last 78 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Derby away?
Hull City's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.26 PPG; Derby away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hull City's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Derby have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Hull City 4-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 60%, Derby 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Hull City) and 53% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 29% of games; Derby in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hull City's games and 60% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Hull City's recent games and 53% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Derby tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Derby in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Derby 4-2 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.09 xG and Derby 1.89 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against Derby attack 1.24 / defence 0.88, drawn from 78/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 21% | Draw 24% | Derby 55%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 45%, Derby 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, Derby 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.