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Poisson rates Derby at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Derby encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Derby travel to MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Hull City's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at MKM Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Derby — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Derby's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hull City 1.70 PPG, Derby 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Derby have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Hull City.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Derby winning.

It is worth noting that Derby have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Hull City trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Derby trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Derby 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 45% | Derby 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.09 xG and Derby 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.953 / defence 1.285 | Derby attack 1.236 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.190. Derby have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 78 Hull City games / 79 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hull City 21% | Draw 24% | Derby 55%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Derby (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.

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