Fulham 3-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Fulham (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 5W 1D 1L from 7 Championship appearances (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 road games this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Fulham, 1.80 for West Brom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 64% versus West Brom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 64% | West Brom 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.51 xG and West Brom 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.334 / defence 0.988 | West Brom attack 1.052 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.109. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Fulham games / 14 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 29% | West Brom 27%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | West Brom 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 57% | West Brom 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 44% | Draw 29% | West Brom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Fulham 1.51 / West Brom 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.334 / def 0.988 | West Brom attack 1.052 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Fulham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.15
West Brom xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs West Brom kick off?
Fulham vs West Brom kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs West Brom?
Fulham 3 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Fulham vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs West Brom part of?
Fulham vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 44% chance of winning, West Brom a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fulham and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and West Brom in?
Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. West Brom (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.33) and West Brom's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (1.05x) against Fulham's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.44
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.66
1.15
West Brom xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fulham and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Fulham and 1.15 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Fulham have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 9W 2D 3L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom's form line: 8W 4D 2L from 14 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.07 PPG for Fulham against 2.00 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fulham have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.79 scored and 0.79 conceded. Fulham's scoring rate against West Brom's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: West Brom in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and West Brom in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 games (2.07 PPG), while West Brom have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or West Brom away?
Fulham's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.29 PPG; West Brom away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Fulham or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, West Brom in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fulham
0
Draws
1
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and West Brom?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, West Brom have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when West Brom 1-0 Fulham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 57%, West Brom 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Fulham) and 57% (West Brom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fulham's games and 57% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fulham's matches and 57% of West Brom's.
Do Fulham and West Brom tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, West Brom in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of West Brom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat West Brom 3-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.51 xG and West Brom 1.15 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. West Brom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.33 / defence 0.99 against West Brom attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 44% | Draw 29% | West Brom 27%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 64%, West Brom 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
West Brom's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 2.07 PPG, West Brom 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.