Nottingham Forest 0-4 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 14 as Nottingham Forest welcome Fulham to The City Ground. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 games at The City Ground this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The City Ground this season.
Fulham — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Nottingham Forest) versus 1.90 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 83% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Fulham trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nottingham Forest 69% and Fulham 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 62% | Fulham 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.31 xG and Fulham 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.875 / defence 1.394 | Fulham attack 1.230 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.095. Fulham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Nottingham Forest games / 13 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 25% | Draw 25% | Fulham 49%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Fulham 2.04. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 83% | Fulham 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 25% | Draw 25% | Fulham 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.31 / Fulham 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.875 / def 1.394 | Fulham attack 1.230 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Fulham (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Fulham xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 4 Fulham.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 25% chance of winning, Fulham a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.88) and Fulham's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
25%
3.94
25%
3.98
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
3.19
1.88
Fulham xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
4%
25.78
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.88 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 5W 2D 6L from 13 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 3L across 13 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fulham by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.31 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Fulham's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.23 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Fulham in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Fulham in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Fulham have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 0.67 PPG; Fulham away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2023, when Fulham won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
7
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
From 10 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Fulham have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nottingham Forest at 83%, Fulham at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nottingham Forest and 67% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Nottingham Forest's games and 83% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 67% of Fulham's.
Do Nottingham Forest and Fulham tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fulham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Nottingham Forest.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 0-4 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.31 xG and Fulham 1.88 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fulham outscored their 1.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.88 / defence 1.39 against Fulham attack 1.23 / defence 1.37, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 25% | Draw 25% | Fulham 49%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 62%, Fulham 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.