West Brom 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Brom and Hull City meet at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 5W 2D 0L from 7 home games — 2.43 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. Their home PPG of 2.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Hull City have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City away from home this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. West Brom's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Hull City's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Hull City — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 47% versus Hull City 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 60% | Hull City 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.51 xG and Hull City 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.212 / defence 0.849 | Hull City attack 0.552 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.144. Data: 15 West Brom games / 15 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 61% | Draw 27% | Hull City 13%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Hull City 7.69. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Hull City's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 43% | Hull City 14% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 61% | Draw 27% | Hull City 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 33% | xG West Brom 1.51 / Hull City 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.212 / def 0.849 | Hull City attack 0.552 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: West Brom (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Hull City xG
33%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Hull City kick off?
West Brom vs Hull City kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Hull City?
West Brom 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is West Brom vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Hull City part of?
West Brom vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 61% chance of winning, Hull City a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both West Brom and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Brom and Hull City in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.21) and Hull City's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.55x) against West Brom's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.54.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
61%
1.65
27%
3.75
13%
7.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.04
0.54
Hull City xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
7.95
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
58%
1.71
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
35%
2.82
3%
35.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are West Brom and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for West Brom and 0.54 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Hull City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom come into this having played 15 games, going 8W 4D 3L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 0.60 PPG from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
West Brom's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 27%.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Hull City in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 games (1.87 PPG), while Hull City have gone 2W 3D 10L in their last 15 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Hull City away?
West Brom's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.43 PPG; Hull City away: 0.57 PPG.
Have West Brom or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hull City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won 5-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Brom
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 6, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Hull City?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 43% (West Brom) and 14% (Hull City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (West Brom) and 14% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Hull City in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of West Brom's recent matches and 14% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of West Brom's recent games and 14% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Hull City tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hull City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Hull City 1-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.51 xG and Hull City 0.54 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Hull City attack 0.55 / defence 1.16, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 61% | Draw 27% | Hull City 13%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 60%, Hull City 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hull City's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.