Derby 1-2 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Blackburn meet at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 2W 5D 0L from 7 Championship appearances (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackburn have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Blackburn have posted 1W 3D 3L from 7 away outings — 0.86 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Blackburn half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 43% versus Blackburn 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 21% | Blackburn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.14 xG and Blackburn 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.847 / defence 0.969 | Blackburn attack 0.775 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.100. Blackburn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Derby games / 14 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 41% | Draw 34% | Blackburn 24%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Blackburn 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 57% | Blackburn 71% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 41% | Draw 34% | Blackburn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Derby 1.14 / Blackburn 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.847 / def 0.969 | Blackburn attack 0.775 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Derby (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Blackburn xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Blackburn kick off?
Derby vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Blackburn?
Derby 1 - 2 Blackburn.
Where is Derby vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Blackburn part of?
Derby vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 41% chance of winning, Blackburn a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Derby and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Blackburn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Blackburn in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.85) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.78x) against Derby's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
41%
2.43
34%
2.91
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Derby xG
Total xG
1.97
0.83
Blackburn xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Derby and 0.83 for Blackburn, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Derby have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 3W 8D 3L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn's form line: 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Derby against 1.43 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (2W 5D 0L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackburn's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.64 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Blackburn in 71%.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 3W 8D 3L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Blackburn away?
Derby's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.57 PPG; Blackburn away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Derby or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Blackburn in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Blackburn?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Blackburn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Derby 3-1 Blackburn.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Blackburn see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 57%, Blackburn 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Derby) and 43% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Derby have failed to score in 29% of games; Blackburn in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Blackburn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Derby's games and 71% of Blackburn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Derby's recent games and 43% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Blackburn tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Blackburn defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.14 xG and Blackburn 0.83 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Blackburn attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 41% | Draw 34% | Blackburn 24%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Blackburn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 21%, Blackburn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackburn's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.21 PPG, Blackburn 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.