Swansea 3-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Peterborough make the trip to Swansea.com Stadium to face Swansea in Championship, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Swansea (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's home record at Swansea.com Stadium: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Championship appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Peterborough have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Peterborough have posted 1W 0D 6L from 7 away outings — 0.43 PPG. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Swansea, 1.00 for Peterborough — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 50% versus Peterborough 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 57% | Peterborough 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.70 xG and Peterborough 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.898 / defence 0.882 | Peterborough attack 0.713 / defence 1.735. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.100. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.735 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Swansea games / 14 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 60% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 13%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | Peterborough 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 29% | Peterborough 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Peterborough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 60% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG Swansea 1.70 / Peterborough 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.898 / def 0.882 | Peterborough attack 0.713 / def 1.735 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Swansea (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Peterborough xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Peterborough kick off?
Swansea vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Peterborough?
Swansea 3 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Swansea vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Peterborough part of?
Swansea vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 60% chance of winning, Peterborough a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Swansea and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and Peterborough in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Swansea's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.71x) against Swansea's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
60%
1.66
27%
3.76
13%
7.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.39
0.69
Peterborough xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
7.54
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
2%
41.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Swansea and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Swansea and 0.69 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Swansea's recent record stands at 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 8L across 14 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Swansea against 1.00 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 3W 3D 1L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Swansea are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Peterborough's away record stands at 1W 0D 6L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Peterborough's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Swansea are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.14 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Peterborough away?
Swansea's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.71 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Swansea or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Peterborough in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Swansea
0
Draws
0
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Peterborough?
From 2 meetings on record, Swansea have won 2, Peterborough have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2022, when Peterborough 2-3 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Peterborough?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Swansea see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 29%, Peterborough 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Swansea) and 71% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 43% of games; Peterborough in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Swansea's recent matches and 43% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Swansea's matches and 71% of Peterborough's.
Dominant Swansea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Peterborough 3-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.70 xG and Peterborough 0.69 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Peterborough attack 0.71 / defence 1.74, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 60% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 13%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 57%, Peterborough 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.21 PPG, Peterborough 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.