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Double Chance Predictions

Fixtures ranked by highest double chance probability — Saturday 4 May 2024

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Double Chance covers two of the three results: the selected side wins or the match is drawn. Our prediction model adds the side's win probability to the draw probability, so only a defeat loses. Only selections at 75%+ probability are shown.

20 matches cleared our threshold on Saturday 4 May 2024. Sporting CP vs Portimonense (Sporting CP or draw) led the list at 95% in the Primeira Liga. The shortlist runs from 95% down to 79%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.

The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.

Of the 20 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 17 landed the double chance market — 85%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.

Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Portugal Sporting CP or draw 95%

✓ Over 2.5 86% BTTS Yes 60%

La Liga · Spain Real Madrid or draw 93%

✓ Over 2.5 58% ✓ BTTS No 59% ✓ Real Madrid Clean Sheet 55%

Serie A · Italy Inter or draw 92%

Over 2.5 72% BTTS Yes 55%

Thai League 1 · Thailand Muangthong United or draw 91%

✓ Over 2.5 72% BTTS Yes 56%

Veikkausliiga · Finland HJK Helsinki or draw 89%

Over 2.5 71% BTTS Yes 60%

Premier League · England Manchester City or draw 87%

✓ Over 2.5 61% ✓ BTTS Yes 54%

Premier League · England Arsenal or draw 86%

✓ Over 2.5 62% BTTS Yes 56%

Canadian Premier League · Canada Cavalry FC or draw 85%

Under 2.5 60% BTTS No 57%

Championship · England Leeds or draw 84%

#10

Championship · England Leicester or draw 83%

Over 2.5 66% BTTS Yes 60%

#11

K League 1 · South-Korea Pohang Steelers or draw 83%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 62%

#12

Super League · China Shandong Luneng or draw 83%

#13

Championship · England Ipswich or draw 82%

Over 2.5 69% BTTS Yes 63%

#14

Pro League · Saudi-Arabia Al-Nassr or draw 81%

✓ Over 2.5 60% BTTS Yes 59%

#15

Superettan · Sweden Osters IF or draw 81%

✓ Under 2.5 64% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#16

Süper Lig · Turkey Adana Demirspor or draw 80%

Over 2.5 55% BTTS Yes 56%

#17

Superettan · Sweden Oddevold or draw 80%

✓ Under 2.5 67% ✓ BTTS No 60%

#18

Primeira Liga · Portugal FC Porto or draw 80%

✓ Over 2.5 63% BTTS Yes 60%

#19

League One · England Oxford United or draw 79%

Over 2.5 65% BTTS Yes 61%

#20

Ligue 1 · France Monaco or draw 79%

Under 2.5 69% BTTS No 63%

Showing top 20 fixtures by double chance probability (a 75% or higher double chance probability). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.

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Double Chance — common questions

What does the Double Chance market mean?

Double Chance settles on whether a match avoids defeat for the selected side — a win or a draw both count. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

How does Fixture360 calculate double chance probability?

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The double chance probability shown here is the selected side's win probability plus the draw probability, so only a defeat loses. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

How many fixtures qualified for Double Chance on Saturday 4 May 2024?

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Sporting CP vs Portimonense (Sporting CP or draw) at 95% double chance probability.

Which fixtures appear on this page?

Fixtures with a 75% or higher double chance probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

How accurate are these double chance predictions?

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

Are these predictions betting tips?

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.