Monaco 4-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Monaco (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Monaco face Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monaco and Clermont Foot meet at Stade Louis-II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Louis-II — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Louis-II. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Louis-II this season.
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Monaco's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Monaco have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Clermont Foot managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 4–2 with Monaco winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Monaco and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 61% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 62% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.24 xG and Clermont Foot 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.902 / defence 0.783 | Clermont Foot attack 0.658 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.377. Monaco's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Monaco games / 69 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 21%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Clermont Foot 4.76. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 40% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Monaco 1.24 / Clermont Foot 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.902 / def 0.783 | Clermont Foot attack 0.658 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Monaco (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Clermont Foot xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Monaco vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Monaco 4 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Monaco vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Clermont Foot part of?
Monaco vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 49% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Monaco and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
Record (5 meetings): Monaco 4W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Monaco and Clermont Foot in?
Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monaco's attack at 0.90x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.66x) against Monaco's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
49%
2.06
31%
3.26
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Monaco xG
Total xG
1.95
0.71
Clermont Foot xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Monaco and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Monaco and 0.71 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco's recent record stands at 36W 15D 18L from 69 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 29L across 69 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 17W 6D 11L from 34 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 10D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.01 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 36W 15D 18L in their last 69 games (1.78 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 22W 18D 29L in their last 69 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Clermont Foot away?
Monaco's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.68 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Monaco have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 4-0 on 16 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Monaco
1
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 5, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Monaco 4-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 56%, Clermont Foot 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Monaco) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Monaco's games and 59% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Monaco's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Clermont Foot 4-1 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.24 xG and Clermont Foot 0.71 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.90 / defence 0.78 against Clermont Foot attack 0.66 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 49% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 21%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 62%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.