Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Madrid face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Madrid host Cadiz at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Madrid stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Real Madrid's home record at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu: 9W 1D 0L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cadiz have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Real Madrid hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Cadiz, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Real Madrid winning.
The historical record gives Real Madrid a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Real Madrid trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cadiz trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 54% versus Cadiz 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 54% | Cadiz 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.44 xG and Cadiz 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.482 / defence 0.761 | Cadiz attack 0.713 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.085. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.482 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Real Madrid's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Real Madrid games / 71 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 78% | Draw 16% | Cadiz 7%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.28 | Draw 6.25 | Cadiz 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 40% | Cadiz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 78% | Draw 16% | Cadiz 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 41% | xG Real Madrid 2.44 / Cadiz 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.482 / def 0.761 | Cadiz attack 0.713 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Cadiz xG
41%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Cadiz kick off?
Real Madrid vs Cadiz kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Real Madrid 3 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Real Madrid vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Cadiz part of?
Real Madrid vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 78% chance of winning, Cadiz a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Real Madrid and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
Record (5 meetings): Real Madrid 3W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Real Madrid and Cadiz in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Real Madrid's attack rating (1.48) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Real Madrid's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
78%
1.29
16%
6.45
7%
14.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
3.03
0.59
Cadiz xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.45
16%
Draw
14.99
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
55%
1.80
9%
11.45
Win to Nil
43%
2.32
1%
171.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.59 for Cadiz, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Cadiz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Madrid's recent record stands at 50W 12D 9L from 71 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 14W 26D 31L across 71 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Real Madrid have managed 27W 7D 1L from 35 games — 2.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 3W 12D 20L across 35 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Madrid are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.75 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 50W 12D 9L in their last 71 games (2.28 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 14W 26D 31L in their last 71 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Cadiz away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.51 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Real Madrid or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cadiz in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2023, when Real Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Madrid's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Real Madrid
2
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 4, Cadiz have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Cadiz?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Madrid 57%, Cadiz 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Real Madrid) and 23% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cadiz in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Real Madrid's recent matches and 40% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Madrid vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Real Madrid's recent games and 23% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Madrid and Cadiz tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Cadiz 3-0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.44 xG and Cadiz 0.59 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.48 / defence 0.76 against Cadiz attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 78% | Draw 16% | Cadiz 7%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 54%, Cadiz 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Cadiz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.