České Budějovice 1-3 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as České Budějovice face Pardubice.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

České Budějovice and Pardubice meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

České Budějovice's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

České Budějovice at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Pardubice have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Pardubice away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for České Budějovice, 2 for Pardubice and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended České Budějovice 2–3 Pardubice — a Pardubice win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

České Budějovice — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Pardubice — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 60% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 62% | Pardubice 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.28 xG and Pardubice 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.907 / defence 1.147 | Pardubice attack 1.023 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.058. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 32 games and Pardubice's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 38% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 36%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.67 | Draw 3.72 | Pardubice 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 70% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (České Budějovice 32 games, Pardubice 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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