Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Andrův stadion to face Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sigma Olomouc have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1W 4D 5L at Andrův stadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.00 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Teplice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 3 for Teplice and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 62% versus Teplice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | Teplice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.39 xG and Teplice 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.947 / defence 1.110 | Teplice attack 0.868 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.059. Data: 32 Sigma Olomouc games / 32 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 27% | Teplice 28%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 3.57. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Teplice 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 27% | Teplice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.39 / Teplice 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.947 / def 1.110 | Teplice attack 0.868 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Teplice xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 45% chance of winning, Teplice a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Record (6 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 2 | Teplice 3W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Teplice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 0.95x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.87x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.71
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.41
1.02
Teplice xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.02 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 11W 8D 15L from 34 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 16L across 34 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.06 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 6W 4D 6L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 4W 2D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.97 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while Teplice have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Teplice away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.38 PPG; Teplice away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 56%, Teplice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sigma Olomouc) and 56% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Teplice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 56% of Teplice's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Teplice tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Teplice in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Teplice 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.39 xG and Teplice 1.02 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 45% | Draw 27% | Teplice 28%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, Teplice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.21 PPG, Teplice 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.