FK Jablonec 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as FK Jablonec welcome Plzen to Stadion Střelnice. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Střelnice — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Plzen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plzen have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for FK Jablonec.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Plzen trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 57% versus Plzen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 40% | Plzen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.34 xG and Plzen 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.066 / defence 0.928 | Plzen attack 1.288 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.086. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 FK Jablonec games / 32 Plzen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 36%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG FK Jablonec 1.34 / Plzen 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.066 / def 0.928 | Plzen attack 1.288 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Plzen xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Plzen kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Plzen.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Plzen part of?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 38% chance of winning, Plzen a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FK Jablonec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Record (4 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 4W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.07) and Plzen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.82
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.64
1.30
Plzen xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.30 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 10W 14D 13L from 37 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 23W 7D 7L across 37 games — 2.05 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 8W 7D 3L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Plzen's away record stands at 10W 4D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 10W 14D 13L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while Plzen have gone 23W 7D 7L in their last 37 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.72 PPG; Plzen away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 61%, Plzen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (FK Jablonec) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FK Jablonec's games and 67% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Plzen tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Plzen in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.34 xG and Plzen 1.30 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.92, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 36%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 40%, Plzen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.